The following piece first appeared at Californians for Electric Rail and is reprinted here with their permission. Because it's important to debunk misinformation as it's presented, consider watching this video by Streetsblog NYC about the federal attacks on New York's congestion pricing.
On Thursday, February 20th, Trump Department of Transportation head Sean Duffy visited Union Station in Los Angeles to announce he will be auditing California High Speed Rail. This audit is clearly a pretext for revoking nearly $4 billion dollars in federal funds delivered by the Biden administration, based on comments by Republican electeds who shared the stage with him. For this reason, much of Duffy's press conference was shouted down by boos from from pro-High Speed Rail protestors, including members of Californians for Electric Rail. But does Duffy have a point about the problems with the project? Here's why not:
Project Details
Duffy starts off by describing the project as a "bridge to nowhere". In reality, 171 miles of rail right of way, including a number of bridges and viaducts that are necessary to travel at speeds over 200 mph, have been built for the Central Valley initial operating segment. The cities served have over 1 million residents, and include California's fastest growing city, Fresno. High speed rail in Japan and other countries includes stops at Merced-sized cities. Starting construction in the initial operating segment was also not the choice of the High Speed Rail Authority or California Democrats, rather it was imposed by the federal government at the behest of local, largely GOP interests.
Duffy also repeats the common right-wing criticism that no track has been laid. In actuality, the project entered the track-laying phase in early January. And trackwork is relatively speedy and simple compared to the complex infrastructure that has been under construction the past few years.
Duffy compares CAHSR favorably to Brightline West, which is currently seeking federal money despite being privately owned. Contra to what Duffy’s claims, Brightline is not on time or on budget and hasn’t even started construction yet.
Budget and Timeline Issues
Duffy also asks why California Democrats aren't asking questions about high speed rail costs. In reality, many Dem-aligned and nonpartisan organizations, including us, have asked and answered these questions. In particular, the (Democrat-dominated) California legislature has ordered many audits of California High Speed Rail, most recently in 2018. Ethan Elkind and colleagues at UC Berkeley also published a detailed analysis of CAHSR's cost and timeline issues in 2022. And the state's independent auditor released a report the day after Duffy's presser. The reports highlighted these causes for delays and high costs:
- California started construction before design was complete at the behest of the federal government, leading to costly design changes
- Overreliance on consultants, to the point that consultants were managing contracts
- Issues with utility relocations and 3rd party construction permits
- Issues with land acquisition and related lawsuits
- Funding uncertainty
Issue 1 is no longer relevant for the initial operating segment, as design is complete. What about these other issues? Whose fault are they, and is it true that California is doing nothing about it?
Duffy asks which consultants are getting rich on the project, implying corruption is involved, and it's true that the inability of the state to manage contracts and keep a handle on consultants is a problem. However, California has made important progress in hiring in-house engineers, designers, and contract mangers at the High Speed Rail authority, to a much greater degree than other transit agencies, and they now have authority to self-certify for NEPA. Does Duffy support these cost-saving reforms? Unlikely, given his interest in revoking funding for the project and firing government employees expressed elsewhere.
3rd parties responding slowly to requests for information or demanding costly concessions for construction permits continues to be an issue. We have advocated for legislation to reduce their leverage in these negotiations, and state Senator Scott Wiener introduced legislation to do so the same week as Duffy's press conference. But again, cutting high speed rail's budget will not make progress on this issue.
Issues with land acquisition and associated lawsuits have led to delays and cost increases for high speed rail. According to the 2018 state audit,
The Authority's acquisition of the land was delayed in part by a 2011 lawsuit over whether the Authority had met legal requirements to issue bonds, which the Authority stated it needed to do in order to purchase property.... Land acquisition delays have cost $64 million for Project 1 and extended its completion deadline by 17 months. The Authority also issued change orders because of land acquisition delays in Project 2/3 and Project 4. In total, these change orders have resulted in more than $115 million in additional costs.
Who is behind these lawsuits? Who has made land sales difficult? It's the base of the California Republican party, including the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association and the Central Valley farmers the GOP represents.
The final major reason for high costs and delays? Funding uncertainty. According to the Elkind report, "Mehdi Morshed, the longtime executive director of CHSRA, cited political disagreements between elected officials as the primary factor causing construction delays at the time." The Trump administration repeatedly attempted to defund CAHSR during his first term. In addition to attempting to defund Caltrain electrification, Trump attempted to de-obligate and demand repayment of $929 million awarded in 2011. While ultimately unsuccessful, the legal challenges related to these attempts drained state funds and created uncertainty in the budget that slowed construction. According to the Elkind report,
Uncertainty from administration to administration may also contribute to a lack of private investment support, an inability for agencies and communities to plan for the long term, and increased concern about stranded assets if the project cannot be completed.
At Thursday's press conference, Duffy insisted that protestors were targeting the wrong person, and instead should protest Democratic leaders. But from this analysis, it's clear that political opposition to the project, led by Trump and many of the California Republicans who shared the stage with Duffy, is a major contributor to the project's high costs and delays. Many of the electeds at the press conference boasted of opposing the project since the voters approved it back in 2008. Rather than providing consistent leadership necessary to get the project to the finish line swiftly and affordably, Republicans have chosen to make High Speed Rail into a culture war issue and political punching bag - at the expense of their own constituents, who benefit from the 15,000 jobs created by the project and the pollution and traffic improvements it will bring. Duffy's attempts to once again cut off federal funding will do nothing to make the project better, but will simply introduce even more uncertainty, delay, and divert funds to lawsuits rather than construction.
California High Speed Rail in Perspective
Duffy is wrong about a lot of important details, but you can't deny that CA High Speed Rail is delayed and over budget. Is the project beyond saving? Is he correct that “the project is not going to happen. There is no timeline in which we are going to have high speed rail that goes from LA to San Francisco”?
If you compare costs to an international baseline, there's no doubt California High Speed Rail has a cost premium. Elkind et al. estimated the entire project, from LA to SF, would cost 1.5x more per kilometer than European high speed rail projects. However, the United States has the 6th highest rail construction costs in the world, and rail projects in general cost 2.5x the global average per kilometer. And the Central Valley segment is actually proceeding faster than European equivalents. By these standards there is nothing particularly exceptional about California High Speed Rail's cost overruns - the sticker price simply seems high because it is a large, ambitious project.
California High Speed Rail Costs compared to an international baseline (Elkind et al. 2022)
Cost issues are not limited to transit. The US spends 2-3 times more per project on highways than peer high income countries, and highway construction costs recently increased 50% in just two years. Is Secretary Duffy going to cancel all highway funding too until he figures out what's going on?
By these standards, there is nothing exceptional about California High Speed Rail's cost issues that merits canceling the project. Canceling the project now, after $13 billion has been spent but the project is not yet usable by trains, would ensure that all that money is wasted on a stranded asset - hardly fiscally responsible. Duffy dodged questions in the press conference about what should be done about these stranded assets, but it's something California needs to take very seriously.
It's clear that Duffy's investigation of California High Speed Rail is motivated by ideology rather than genuine concern for fiscal responsibility. Duffy praised "what DOGE has done in the last month with fraud waste and abuse"- which includes spending nearly $40 million in public money in secret, giving known cybercriminals access to sensitive data of millions of Americans, and illegally firing thousands of federal workers, including disease researchers, firefighters, park rangers, and nuclear safety experts. All that sure sounds like fraud, waste, and abuse! The ruling party currently taking a sledgehammer to the public sector is just not going to produce useful insights about reducing transit capital projects.
Duffy's colleague Rep. Kevin Kiley was very clear about his intention to destroy California High Speed Rail, saying "If we cut off federal funding, we kill the project." But Kiley is wrong. While cutting off federal funding would drive up costs and delay the project, California has funded the majority of the project so far, and must be prepared to continue to do so. We need our leaders to stand proud in support of California High Speed Rail and champion continued funding, through the Cap and Trade Extension and other state programs, to bring the project to the finish line.
