Media Fact Check: No, the Budget for California High-Speed Rail Didn’t Just Grow by $100 Billion

If you live in a fact-based universe, you were probably surprised by this morning’s headlines on California High-Speed Rail. “California’s high-speed rail now ‘worst project in history’ — as insiders reveal unbelievable new cost,” blared the right-wing tabloid California Post. ​​”California high-speed rail price tag jumps to $231B, nearly seven times 2008 estimate,” continues the Central Valley’s KMPH/FOX 26. “CA High-Speed Rail Cost Explodes to $231 Billion, From Original $33 Billion,” echoes the California Globe.

Wasn’t it just two months ago that the California High Speed Rail Authority (CAHSRA) unveiled a new business plan that put the price of the project between Los Angeles and San Francisco at $126 billion, a number that was actually lower than the previous business plan?

Last week, the California State Senate Transportation Committee held a hearing on the project to review a report put together by the non-partisan Legislative Analysts’ Office (LAO). The report summarizes and reviews the business plan presented by CAHSRA in February. In one line, the report mentions the cost of the project under a worst-case scenario if the Assembly and Senate don’t pass a series of reforms they are widely expected to pass. The information is presented as cautionary to encourage legislators to act responsibly.

State Senator Tony Strickland (R-Orange County) sent out a press statement taking the $231 billion number as fact, and the right-wing press took that “truth” and ran with it.

The $231 billion number is not new; it was included in the plan released in the winter. But Strickland savvily used it to stoke partisan fears that the project, often tied to Governor Gavin Newsom in the press, is out of control.

Briefly, this partisan spin ignores history. The “original $33 billion” number was created in 2008 by staff for Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. While delays, inflation, and the increased cost of raw materials over the past 18 years increased the cost, Schwarzenegger’s team also missed several obvious things when creating its estimate, including land acquisition and the cost of related projects (overpasses and other road projects included in CAHSRA.)

Mistakes happen! There’s been no reporting that I’ve seen that Schwarzenegger’s office was acting in bad faith. But to blame Newsom, or his predecessor (and Schwarzenegger’s successor) Jerry Brown, for a price tag that is much larger than the original estimate is just partisan posturing.

So if a confused loved one who suffers from windshield bias, a frenemy who thinks the project is a waste, or anyone else brings this story up, there are just two things to remember: the estimated budget for the project is still $126 billion. And the original $33 billion estimate came from a Republican.